Even though Nate Diaz choked him out and ended the “Conor McGregor Show” at UFC 196, Conor is currently a slight favorite to win the rematch at UFC 202.
Losing a fight and still being favored to win the rematch is not uncommon in mixed martial arts, as was the case in the Matt Serra vs. GSP rematch, and when the time comes it will also be the case when Luke Rockhold once again squares off with new MW champ Michael Bisping.
In the case of either Bisping or Serra however, you can make the case that they got a little lucky. Diaz didn’t get lucky at UFC 196; he was the better fighter.
Despite this there are still plenty of reasons to believe Conor can beat Diaz in the rematch. Here are 5 of them:
5) Different Strategy
It’s hard to blame Conor for charging right at Diaz and trying to bulldog his way to victory, since that strategy had been working so well for him. The only problem is that Nate Diaz is possibly the worst fighter to try to do that too, because it is so difficult to knock the guy out.
Diaz has only been stopped twice in his career, once via armbar to Hermes Franca in 2006 and once via TKO to Josh Thomson in 2013.
Guys like Rory MacDonald, Benson Henderson and Rafael Dos Anjos have all tried, and failed, to finish Diaz. Asking a guy who had been fighting at featherweight to knock out a guy that Rory MacDonald couldn’t KO is asking a lot.
Conor knocked the pulp off of Diaz’s face for 1.5 rounds in a fight that didn’t go to a 3rd round. He lost at UFC 196 because he hit Diaz with everything he had and Diaz kept coming forward. McGregor didn’t know what to do when he realized his best shots weren’t going to take out Diaz, he panicked, Diaz tagged him, Conor panicked some more, tried to take him down, and got himself choked out by the BJJ black belt.
Conor knows now to not fight for the knock out. If he fights more cautious, gets in and gets out with his punches, he will beat Nate Diaz.
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