1. Smart Pick of the Night: Conor McGregor -150
Conor McGregor lines are often a little skewed. The rules are just different for someone as polarizing as he is. Remember book-makers want to set odds that are going to ensure them a profit no matter what happens, so they are trying to basically get an even amount of money coming in for both Conor and Alvarez. What makes determining this number more complex in the case of someone like Conor, is that not only will the lines be based on opinions of who will win but also based on the expectant money coming in from both rabid-supporters of Conor, and also rabid-haters of Conor. So its tough to say what, if anything, these early odds say about Conor’s chances of winning the lightweight title.
Unfortunately McGregor and Alvarez do not have any common opponents, so MMA Math is not an option in this bout. But we can do a little 2nd degree MMA math which might be helpful. The equation goes like this:
- Donald Cerrone beat Alvarez at UFC 178
- Nate Diaz beat beat Donald Cerrone at UFC 141
- Conor McGregor beat Nate Diaz at UFC 202 (also lost to him at 196)
it’s not a perfect equation, but it’s one that gives a very slight advantage to Conor.
More than that however, Conor is just not someone any smart gambler is going to be betting against anytime soon. Whether you love him or hate him, Conor is a determined guy. He learned some valuable lessons at UFC 196, and instead of taking a loss and going into hiding like Rousey did, he used it as a way to get better. Then he turned around and insisted on taking the same fight at the same weight class, and then he won. Anybody with that level of determination is someone you want to be betting on, not against.
